Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
- Thread starter kenntona
- Start date
Markus
Well-Known Member
Re: Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
Dun think 'finally' is the right word pal.
My sense is that panic will breakout for next round cos COE B and Open Cat only came down "a bit". The "wait and see" folk will want to jump in the bandwagon before Feb's cut. Quite typical of Singaporeans.
For Cat A, there will be a rush of buyers hoping to cash in on the price reduction because these are the most price sensitive group.
So barring an economic downturn, the trend looks pretty bullish. At least that's my sense...
Dun think 'finally' is the right word pal.
My sense is that panic will breakout for next round cos COE B and Open Cat only came down "a bit". The "wait and see" folk will want to jump in the bandwagon before Feb's cut. Quite typical of Singaporeans.
For Cat A, there will be a rush of buyers hoping to cash in on the price reduction because these are the most price sensitive group.
So barring an economic downturn, the trend looks pretty bullish. At least that's my sense...
hoks
Well-Known Member
Re: Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
Huat ahh!!!
Fewer COEs but Govt collecting more money
Fewer COEs but Govt collecting more money
By SAMUEL EE
THE new car market turned out to be a strange animal last year: the skinnier it grew, the more it gave back.
A total of only 41,000-plus new cars were registered in 2010, down about 39 per cent from the 68,862 units in 2009. But the revenue collected from certificates of entitlement (COEs) is another matter: it ballooned as the number of new cars shrank, BT's calculations show.
In 2010, the revenue collected from three categories of COE - Cat A (for cars below 1,600cc), Cat B (for cars above 1,600cc) and Cat E (the open category) - amounted to $1,409,673,696 (assuming the full premium was paid for each of the successful COE bids).
For 2009, the equivalent figure is $810,584,166, which means a 73.9 per cent jump in COE revenue collected in 2010.
The amount of Cat C commercial vehicle COE premiums reaped was even higher in 2010. Last year, total Cat C revenue collected amounted to $133,622,359, or 124 per cent more than 2009's $59,572,151.
'For the government, it must be a win-win situation,' said a senior executive in a premium dealership. 'Its coffers are overflowing even with less COEs released, which means it can reduce congestion and still make more money. This can only happen with a booming economy.'
But the head of a motor group said that such a trend could make the car a purely luxury item and many from the mass market could decide to shun private vehicles if the premiums stayed high as quotas shrank. 'The rich will complain a bit but they are not really affected,' he said.
During the boom years from 2005 to 2007, total new car registrations soared above 100,000. Generous allocations of COEs allowed registrations to peak at 117,062 units in 2006, and premiums during these years were mostly in the 'teens of thousands'. From late 2008 until the first half of 2009, they even fell below the $10,000 mark.
But the first COE supply shock was administered in early 2009, with the aim of checking annual vehicle growth. The Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced that the new Quota Year 2009 (from April 2009 to March 2010) would have a total of only 83,789 certificates - or 24.1 per cent less than the previous year's allotment.
In particular, Cat A got 28 per cent fewer COEs, Cat B 30.9 per cent less, and Cat E a 12 per cent decrease. Goods vehicle and motorcycle COEs also saw sharp cuts.
But more reductions were to follow. The mid-quota year review - to adjust the number of COEs released for the second half of the quota year - saw a further overall cut of 15.7 per cent from October 2009 onwards.
From 2010, the method of determining the COE quota changed. A transition quota (April to July 2010) preceded the advent of half-yearly COE quotas - from August to January, and February to July - to be determined largely by the actual number of vehicles deregistered in the preceding six- month period.
This was a departure from the previous method of predicting future deregistrations to calculate the number of new COEs for the next 12 months, with any over-projections corrected in a mid-quota year review.
As a result, COE premiums began spiking up in March 2010 and, last month, they hit a 15-year-high for the equivalent big-car category.
Huat ahh!!!
Fewer COEs but Govt collecting more money
Fewer COEs but Govt collecting more money
THE new car market turned out to be a strange animal last year: the skinnier it grew, the more it gave back.
A total of only 41,000-plus new cars were registered in 2010, down about 39 per cent from the 68,862 units in 2009. But the revenue collected from certificates of entitlement (COEs) is another matter: it ballooned as the number of new cars shrank, BT's calculations show.
In 2010, the revenue collected from three categories of COE - Cat A (for cars below 1,600cc), Cat B (for cars above 1,600cc) and Cat E (the open category) - amounted to $1,409,673,696 (assuming the full premium was paid for each of the successful COE bids).
For 2009, the equivalent figure is $810,584,166, which means a 73.9 per cent jump in COE revenue collected in 2010.
The amount of Cat C commercial vehicle COE premiums reaped was even higher in 2010. Last year, total Cat C revenue collected amounted to $133,622,359, or 124 per cent more than 2009's $59,572,151.
'For the government, it must be a win-win situation,' said a senior executive in a premium dealership. 'Its coffers are overflowing even with less COEs released, which means it can reduce congestion and still make more money. This can only happen with a booming economy.'
But the head of a motor group said that such a trend could make the car a purely luxury item and many from the mass market could decide to shun private vehicles if the premiums stayed high as quotas shrank. 'The rich will complain a bit but they are not really affected,' he said.
During the boom years from 2005 to 2007, total new car registrations soared above 100,000. Generous allocations of COEs allowed registrations to peak at 117,062 units in 2006, and premiums during these years were mostly in the 'teens of thousands'. From late 2008 until the first half of 2009, they even fell below the $10,000 mark.
But the first COE supply shock was administered in early 2009, with the aim of checking annual vehicle growth. The Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced that the new Quota Year 2009 (from April 2009 to March 2010) would have a total of only 83,789 certificates - or 24.1 per cent less than the previous year's allotment.
In particular, Cat A got 28 per cent fewer COEs, Cat B 30.9 per cent less, and Cat E a 12 per cent decrease. Goods vehicle and motorcycle COEs also saw sharp cuts.
But more reductions were to follow. The mid-quota year review - to adjust the number of COEs released for the second half of the quota year - saw a further overall cut of 15.7 per cent from October 2009 onwards.
From 2010, the method of determining the COE quota changed. A transition quota (April to July 2010) preceded the advent of half-yearly COE quotas - from August to January, and February to July - to be determined largely by the actual number of vehicles deregistered in the preceding six- month period.
This was a departure from the previous method of predicting future deregistrations to calculate the number of new COEs for the next 12 months, with any over-projections corrected in a mid-quota year review.
As a result, COE premiums began spiking up in March 2010 and, last month, they hit a 15-year-high for the equivalent big-car category.
wt_know
Well-Known Member
Re: Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
gov u-turn ? election coming huh.
everyone will forgive and forget they were screwed ?
THOSE WHO CHASED COE SCREWED - MyCarForum
gov u-turn ? election coming huh.
everyone will forgive and forget they were screwed ?
THOSE WHO CHASED COE SCREWED - MyCarForum
Last edited by a moderator:
Markus
Well-Known Member
Re: Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
40% reduction in COE is ridiculous in the first place lah. Nonetheless the latest nos is still a cut. And given our obsession with cars, I am not so sure if the price drop in COEs is going to be as dramatic as many would hope for if the economy holds. The laws of supply vs demand will still reign...
40% reduction in COE is ridiculous in the first place lah. Nonetheless the latest nos is still a cut. And given our obsession with cars, I am not so sure if the price drop in COEs is going to be as dramatic as many would hope for if the economy holds. The laws of supply vs demand will still reign...
Re: Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
what a move..
from gov perspective,it does somehow cool the white-hot situation for the coming election..
also to let the industry take a breather, let ppl pause and think whether to buy or nt..
to gov, the quota will just keep decreasing as each year pass by in 3 yrs.
ppl who dun or cant buy, its ok, go take always crowded bus or mrt and walk..or look for available preowned cars..still got other ppl wana, can, or need to buy. In a way, its giving out a simple message to everyone - 'bro n sis, i have adjusted the supply liao..no one can bend the economy forces n demand which will set the coe prices trend.'
at the same time, as usual, bk to first objective on the checklist-> more $ still coming in?..clink clink..tick...wait, wana take this and complain more during election, or to ppl who have to, want to or can buy?
what a move..
from gov perspective,it does somehow cool the white-hot situation for the coming election..
also to let the industry take a breather, let ppl pause and think whether to buy or nt..
to gov, the quota will just keep decreasing as each year pass by in 3 yrs.
ppl who dun or cant buy, its ok, go take always crowded bus or mrt and walk..or look for available preowned cars..still got other ppl wana, can, or need to buy. In a way, its giving out a simple message to everyone - 'bro n sis, i have adjusted the supply liao..no one can bend the economy forces n demand which will set the coe prices trend.'
at the same time, as usual, bk to first objective on the checklist-> more $ still coming in?..clink clink..tick...wait, wana take this and complain more during election, or to ppl who have to, want to or can buy?
Markus
Well-Known Member
Re: Madness !!! Euphoria !!!
Most dealers do not buy COEs nowadays unless they already have a car to register. The speculative ones are the minority.
So the people who will benefit from this month's COE price reduction are actually those who booked their cars in Nov/Dec last year and who are about to take delivery. For dealers with the open cat COE, they will wait it out for COEs to rise again since they have at least 6 months window before registering a car.
IMHO, this latest COE price reduction is a window for the above or those who are looking to buy a nearly new used car.
Most dealers do not buy COEs nowadays unless they already have a car to register. The speculative ones are the minority.
So the people who will benefit from this month's COE price reduction are actually those who booked their cars in Nov/Dec last year and who are about to take delivery. For dealers with the open cat COE, they will wait it out for COEs to rise again since they have at least 6 months window before registering a car.
IMHO, this latest COE price reduction is a window for the above or those who are looking to buy a nearly new used car.
