News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

[kenntona]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

By Grant Clark Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citi sees significant volume decline in short term after latest govt measures, likely price cuts in prime districts, analyst Wendy Koh writes in note.

* Sees all developers sold down when market opens

* Wing Tai, City Developments most sensitive to residential property; reiterates sells on both

* Foreigners and corporate entities to pay extra 10% stamp duty from today; permanent residents to pay extra 3% for second home, citizens an extra 3% for third residential property

* Foreigners excluding PRs accounted for 18% of new units sold in 3Q11 vs ~15% in 1Q, 2Q; that’s higher than last peak of 15% in 2007 and 9%-13% in 2008-2010

* In prime districts, foreigners excluding PRs and cos. accounted for 34% of new sales in 3Q11; in suburban locations, 17%

* Daiwa says measures boost odds that its previously forecast 22%-26% fall in home prices by end-2014 will be faster, bigger than expected

* NOTE: Merrill Lynch Singapore Property Equities Index fell 3% after Jan. 13 imposition of higher down-payments for second mortgages; Jan. 14 decliners included CapitaLand (-3.4%), City Developments (-4.6%), Keppel Land (-3.1%)

 

[Centurion9990]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

By Grant Clark Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citi sees significant volume decline in short term after latest govt measures, likely price cuts in prime districts, analyst Wendy Koh writes in note.

* Sees all developers sold down when market opens

* Wing Tai, City Developments most sensitive to residential property; reiterates sells on both

* Foreigners and corporate entities to pay extra 10% stamp duty from today; permanent residents to pay extra 3% for second home, citizens an extra 3% for third residential property

* Foreigners excluding PRs accounted for 18% of new units sold in 3Q11 vs ~15% in 1Q, 2Q; that’s higher than last peak of 15% in 2007 and 9%-13% in 2008-2010

* In prime districts, foreigners excluding PRs and cos. accounted for 34% of new sales in 3Q11; in suburban locations, 17%

* Daiwa says measures boost odds that its previously forecast 22%-26% fall in home prices by end-2014 will be faster, bigger than expected

* NOTE: Merrill Lynch Singapore Property Equities Index fell 3% after Jan. 13 imposition of higher down-payments for second mortgages; Jan. 14 decliners included CapitaLand (-3.4%), City Developments (-4.6%), Keppel Land (-3.1%)

Looks like an opportunity to gun for some property developers shares

 

[zorro]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

The bubble is growing quite big already..Need to release some air before it burst....Year 2013 will be crucial...too much supply on both HDB and private property and if interest rate shoot up with economy dip and rental drop the 30% drop is possible...But by then Gov will remove some of this anti speculation/investment policy..

 

[kenntona]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

Property measures and market impact (UBS)
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Harsh new measures​

The government announced additional stamp duties, likely in a pre-emptive move to deter further rise in investment demand. Buyer’s stamp duties at 3% previously, will now rise to 13% for foreigners and companies, 6% for PRs looking to buy a second or subsequent property, and 6% for citizens looking to buy a third or subsequent property
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1H2012 Government land sales (GLS) in line with expectations​

Meanwhile, the measured response on the GLS suggests that the authorities are cognisant of the supply building up in the system from 2013-2015. 1H2012 GLS will see 7,000 units on the Confirmed List, 7,000 units on the Reserve List. This is down from 8,000/6,000 units in the previous GLS. Seller’s stamp duties, last revised in Jan 2011, remains unchanged.
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Ring-fencing the domestic market​

While the last 3 rounds of tightening were anti-speculation, this move is targeted at investment demand. Paradoxically, a potential capital flight out of Europe into Asia may have galvanised the resolve to ring fence the domestic property market.
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The last round, property stocks fell c15% over two months​

We believe it is not in the government’s interest to drive down property prices. But, given the severity of the new measures, it is hard to see how physical prices will not start falling. Assuming stocks fall as per Jan-11, Q112 may be a good time to start putting cash to work in the developers. In 2009, stocks recovered in Mar-09, even as property prices fell another 14% QoQ in Q109 and 4.7% QoQ in Q209.​

 

[kenntona]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

Looks like an opportunity to gun for some property developers shares

Secular downtrend for most property stocks. short to medium term looks like both a FA/TA short - but please, short on the bounce, not on the gap-down. See what happened after Jan 13th.

 

[wobbles]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

Truth be told, I'm not exactly what anyone would call a pom-pom wielding, cheer-leader kicking, ardent/die-hard supporter of our Pay & Pay - BUT, for the first time in many many many MANY years, I'm finally seeing a policy that differentiates a Singaporean from a foreigner, and all this is to help let the air out of the bubble slowly, without causing a bigger shock/more pain to the system sometime down the road.

Clearly, the government has FINALLY admitted what we plebieans knew all along - that foreign demand has driven up prices to an unsustainable level. This is as CLEAR to the man on the street as the fact that THERE AREN'T ENOUGH CBD PARKING SPACES, no matter WHAT the statistics would say. Well, I say good for them that they've taken action to prevent a Singapore mega-bubble pop so bad that it'd make the American Subprime look like Audrey Hepburn did a fart in a restaurant.

And good for us - for those looking to get into the market, there you go, stop ya yapping & start bringing out your checkbooks. For those already IN the market, well, though, but if there's one thing I know, what goes up will come down, what comes down, will go up - so hang in there, and make sure you have enough to service your next mortgage repayment. For those who are not in anyway invested or without any vested interest whatsoever - good for you too: you get to see the whole drama mama being played out in slow motion, with ring-side seats.

KNNCCB, it's about time my pink IC is made to feel a little different from those hordes of green/blue card holders... and for once, there is a slight difference. Not bad, maybe the Pay & Pay guys ARE listening to the election results after all. Must vote wisely...

 

[toiletsiao]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

CDL open with a drop of 70cents... fierce

 

[Centurion9990]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

CDL open with a drop of 70cents... fierce

:shock::shock::shock: what a dramatic December

 

[toiletsiao]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

with this new scheme... i think commercial properties and industrial properties looks attractive now... no Seller Stamp Duty , no Additional Buyer Stamp Duty and more imptly 80% LTV ... especially those commercial units that is owned by non-GST registered companies or individuals... no need to incur 7% GST for your transaction...

 

[wt_know]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

chinese PR will snap up resale HDB like ordering F30 even before the car hit spore
expect COV to skyrocketed?

 

[Mockngbrd]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

chinese PR will snap up resale HDB like ordering F30 even before the car hit spore
expect COV to skyrocketed?

Singaporean first-time buyers and upgraders, and buyers of HDB flats will not be affected by the new measure.

yup... this will KO normal peepurs... they will turn to HDBeee.... why nothing imposed on foreigners for buying HDB????!??!?!?!?!?!!

 

[detach8]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

How to stop foreigners buying HDB? Then who will pay foriegners their salary so they can afford to stay private property? Then our economy will pengsan due to lack of workforce and manpower.

 

[John74]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

How to stop foreigners buying HDB? Then who will pay foriegners their salary so they can afford to stay private property? Then our economy will pengsan due to lack of workforce and manpower.

In the first place what is HDB? It's should be cheap and affordable housing for Singaporeans only.. But the goverment have been so greedy now that they are using our money to build these HDB and sell it back to us 3 or 4X their building cost.. And HDB should not be sold to Foeigners and PR as well.

 

[C3P0]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

I think in a market like this, if I'm European or Chinese investors I will also put my $$ in Singapore property. As locals we suffer from high prices but at least we know people view us as safe haven.
ac323 our pap rep ask me to say one.

 

[BMWM3]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

Good news from government. Looks like they still want another 5 years terms...

 

[Oilman]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

The gahmen has lost control of the market - this is rojak policy-making, slapped on bit by bit with no overall direction.

Pity the newlyweds holding out for that price collapse that will never come. After each round of cooling measure, "maybe we can finally buy our dream home." Wahahaha. Wait until prices come down then pay 4% interest.

 

[marcusrichard]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

main cause of problem

GOV HDB
buy from HDB so ex
so Resale HDB become ex
so upgraders with money n foreigners make private ex
so everything ex rent property etc

if HDB stop selling new flats at $300 400 500k
and sell at $200-300k

all resale n private property will just come down n correct itself

they add so many newrules
just wont sell cheaper
and wont open up wat is the cost of them building HDB
and wat is the Profit they are taking
HDB is suppose to make big profits?????

 

[wt_know]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

well said
i went condo window shopping and just lightly commenting that this kind of mass condo how can be so expensive
he said bto/dbss already 600k-700k lei ... you think private condo closing 1M expensive?

 

[DrK]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

How come no one believed this kind of measures were coming? These measures were long overdue. The garment that 60% of us had put in place has this infamous trait of copy-cat. We should know that by now. China tightened the housing policies long ago. HK followed suit. Guess who will be next? Of course our dear garment which very reluctantly imposed this new measure even though the high inflation rate and property bubble were staring at their face for ages. Perhaps it really take this year's watershed election results to knock some sense into them or is their concern really genuine? Make no mistake, the property bubble has been the garment's biggest cash cow - the number of expats coming to Spore have always been attracted by the country low tax rate and affordable accomodation (by real expat standards hor... not those CMI 'FTs"). The implementation of this new stamp duty will put off alot of these expats from buying and owning properties. They will shun spore and look elsewhere. Already those expat blogs and finance articles are already KPKB about this new rule. Come one big round, the garment will find someone to pay. *wink wink*. You know who will pay later... as usual... the poor citizens. So don't be too happy now. Sit back and watch the plot unfolds. I will never believe anything that this garment has done or will be doing in the future is initiated because she loves her citizens.

 

[marcusrichard]

Re: News Flash: Additional buyer's stamp duty for private property from Dec 8

yes

its not love

just wanna squezzzzzzzzeee us dry
make us all well off enough but not rich enough
can have things but cannot stop working

number game
more ppl more tax

we are all just numbers to the GOV