Renew COE now?
- Thread starter Jenchoo
- Start date
Hi if you renew now you'll be forgoing the remainder of the current COE value (yes there is a value to it) and the parf value. Your car maybe good now but if something happens either to the car or your situation changes it'll be easier to simply scrap the car at the end of its COE rather then repair it and try to get rid of it then.
Also every person who says renew now there will always be another with the opposite view. Basically there is a reason for either option from everyone here but it'll be a case where your guess is as good as the next guys. Toss a coin and pick a side and be comfortable with whatever the outcome maybe.
All the best with your decision.
Also every person who says renew now there will always be another with the opposite view. Basically there is a reason for either option from everyone here but it'll be a case where your guess is as good as the next guys. Toss a coin and pick a side and be comfortable with whatever the outcome maybe.
All the best with your decision.
PARF is expected to be 'lost' the moment you decided to continue driving, regardless if you going to change new, second hand or COE car. (keep buying COE car is different, another conversation). The only time you truly get back the rebate is when you stop driving 4ever.
The last 2 yrs of PARF rebate delta is actually small (5%), don't bother compare.
If you want to compare COE. then is current COE balance vs the 'renewed' COE yearly cost (linear depreciation for COE). Then again, no one knows what the price will be next yr. Maybe it's negligible (per year).
Sometimes the big bulk of the cost comes from the "implicit" body value. e.g. COE car price consists of 'body value'(A+B) + COE(C), where body value is implicitly correlated from market forces (A) (2nd hand dealer mark up) and PARF rebate (B). It's 'implied' for the simple reason no dealer will sell COE cars at COE+small value and suffer a loss from the PARF rebate when they take over, a better car with higher PARF rebate will always command higher delta else the second hand dealers have no incentives.
To illustrate: if you compare Jap cars vs our BMs. Maybe Jap COE priced at 60k, BMW at 75k, CAT B.
The constituents of the jap car likely to be 5k Body, 14k implicit PARF rebate, 41k COE.
BMW likely to be 12k body, implicit 22k PARF rebate, 41k COE.
with this, it's easier for you to understand that if you change BMW to COE Jap, you save alot because your implicit 22k gets carried forward to cover more than the Jap's. Problem is the implicit for jap cars for the next 10yrs might depreciate faster.
If you change BMW to COE BMW from someone else. you have to pay more (12k). But if it's yours in the first place, instead of buying another... it's technically your own money saved.
That said, personally i don't think all BMW models are suitable for renewal... some models are just better/lousier than other, do take that into consideration.
The last 2 yrs of PARF rebate delta is actually small (5%), don't bother compare.
If you want to compare COE. then is current COE balance vs the 'renewed' COE yearly cost (linear depreciation for COE). Then again, no one knows what the price will be next yr. Maybe it's negligible (per year).
Sometimes the big bulk of the cost comes from the "implicit" body value. e.g. COE car price consists of 'body value'(A+B) + COE(C), where body value is implicitly correlated from market forces (A) (2nd hand dealer mark up) and PARF rebate (B). It's 'implied' for the simple reason no dealer will sell COE cars at COE+small value and suffer a loss from the PARF rebate when they take over, a better car with higher PARF rebate will always command higher delta else the second hand dealers have no incentives.
To illustrate: if you compare Jap cars vs our BMs. Maybe Jap COE priced at 60k, BMW at 75k, CAT B.
The constituents of the jap car likely to be 5k Body, 14k implicit PARF rebate, 41k COE.
BMW likely to be 12k body, implicit 22k PARF rebate, 41k COE.
with this, it's easier for you to understand that if you change BMW to COE Jap, you save alot because your implicit 22k gets carried forward to cover more than the Jap's. Problem is the implicit for jap cars for the next 10yrs might depreciate faster.
If you change BMW to COE BMW from someone else. you have to pay more (12k). But if it's yours in the first place, instead of buying another... it's technically your own money saved.
That said, personally i don't think all BMW models are suitable for renewal... some models are just better/lousier than other, do take that into consideration.
Citizen69
Well-Known Member
Travel industry is not going to recover to its pre-Covid level in the next 3-5 years, meaning that in the short term, other related industries will also be in the doldrums (tourism, hotels, F&B, medical etc)
With the govt aid coming to an end, we will see more companies folding up and more will be careful with their spending ==> COE probably will not rise to S$75k level anytime soon.
Just my theory...
Still can wait 1 year before renew? If I am keen on keeping the ride for another 10 years, I would. If its purely price-point and no sentimental attachment, then I will probably ride out this last 1 year and see what is available at that moment in time. So both option for me is not to renew now.
COE model is just very unique to Singapore. I have friends in the States and Australia and they consider a 10 year old car to be considered quite new and driveable. They look upon the car as a mode of transport, never a status item. As most of them will DIY for simple repairs and oil change, I guess that as long as the spare parts are still in production, they will consider the car 'new'!!!
With the govt aid coming to an end, we will see more companies folding up and more will be careful with their spending ==> COE probably will not rise to S$75k level anytime soon.
Just my theory...
Still can wait 1 year before renew? If I am keen on keeping the ride for another 10 years, I would. If its purely price-point and no sentimental attachment, then I will probably ride out this last 1 year and see what is available at that moment in time. So both option for me is not to renew now.
COE model is just very unique to Singapore. I have friends in the States and Australia and they consider a 10 year old car to be considered quite new and driveable. They look upon the car as a mode of transport, never a status item. As most of them will DIY for simple repairs and oil change, I guess that as long as the spare parts are still in production, they will consider the car 'new'!!!
COE prices have been creeping up right after circuit breaker and quota seems to be going down. I am afraid it will continue to rise if quota is being kept very low. I know economy does not look good the next couple of months at least but if quota is controlled tightly, then price of COE may still be going up. Perhaps COE is also an avenue for governement to get more taxes from the people.
Anyways if I renew now at $35k, I will loose $9k of my current COE. So "price" I am paying is $45k. If next year, COE does not rise to that level, I would have been better off not renewing now. Next month PQP is $38k. I am just afraid it will jump $2k every month. That's why I am in a dilemma now.
By the way, mine is a 528 having 60km mileage. My mechanic checked and said the car is good to keep (wear and tear expected). Is this a car to keep?
Anyways if I renew now at $35k, I will loose $9k of my current COE. So "price" I am paying is $45k. If next year, COE does not rise to that level, I would have been better off not renewing now. Next month PQP is $38k. I am just afraid it will jump $2k every month. That's why I am in a dilemma now.
By the way, mine is a 528 having 60km mileage. My mechanic checked and said the car is good to keep (wear and tear expected). Is this a car to keep?
Noted on the parf loss. But I did not take that into consideration as I am prepared to forgo that part. My dilemma is whether to renew now or 1 year later.
wait awhile till after CNY first...
cheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeers
afmcbeemer
Well-Known Member
60 k km is a newish car lol.If that is the true mileage.
Till covid19 vaccine is officially out no way economy will be up. What we will see is only lukewarm market reactions.
I will wait if I am in your position.
Separately assuming if you are the 1st owner, your original depreciation is approximately 20k plus pa (your purchase price over 10 years) provided you drive till the end. If you renew now your depreciation will be over 9 years which means your depreciation are even higher. Factor in this figure versus possible COE hike next year you have nothing to lose. Same calculation applies even if you are not the 1st owner. Lastly nothing is more important than having 'cash in hand' during this period.
I will wait if I am in your position.
Separately assuming if you are the 1st owner, your original depreciation is approximately 20k plus pa (your purchase price over 10 years) provided you drive till the end. If you renew now your depreciation will be over 9 years which means your depreciation are even higher. Factor in this figure versus possible COE hike next year you have nothing to lose. Same calculation applies even if you are not the 1st owner. Lastly nothing is more important than having 'cash in hand' during this period.
Bentanlh70
Well-Known Member
I don’t think coe will come down significantly, in fact I think it will gradually creep up to maybe 50-60k. Despite COVID, many people are still making good money and Singaporeans always aspire to better cars. Demand for cars will remain super strong. Besides government also needs to replenish the reserves, so we just have to pay and pay!
I feel coe price is not primarily determined by demand (which will be related to our economy doing good or not) because ultimately if the quota supply is reduced, price will still move up. Also, quota seems to be quite lowish for past 2 months although demand was high probably due to backlog. So now I am afraid they are going to tax more on luxury goods to top up what they have spen during Covid. Somehow government needs to find more money right? Every month since Coe resumed, pqp is going up $2-$3k per month. Makes me wonder if we are going back to $40ks, 50ks or even 60ks range in near future. So if I take the plunge and renew now, I forgo my $9k Coe balance vs waiting for a year of uncertainty. It's a gamble both ways. If only we have hints on how LTA is going to adjust its quota next year whether up or down, then easier to analyse.
Question: If more people deregistering their car in July after CB, quota for next quarter increases. But what if they deregister in July and buy a new car at the same time (usually this case), does this mean there will still be an increase in quota next quarter? Or there wont be any change in quota because the number of cars on the road effectively still the same?
This is why I said your guess is as good as anyone here. No need to think so much too many variables to consider and hope and pray, if I could tell what COE prices are going to be i think i'd rather go buy 4D and toto.
maybe give yourself an arbitrary timeline (realistic one) and the various scenarios, e.g. you intend to keep the car for next 5 yrs.
Option 1: wait next yr then renew.
A: COE then 40k. your COE Depreciation is 9k+4 years x4k =25k
B: COE then 50k. "" is 29k
C: COE then 60k. "" is 33k
D: COE then 70k. "" is 37k
Option 2: change now
your COE depreciation is 5x (40k/10)+9k(loss)= 29k
tipping pt is 50k COE. Then again, i doubt COE gonna fly in view of Covid situation. 60-70k COE is unlikely for next 12mths.
Option 1: wait next yr then renew.
A: COE then 40k. your COE Depreciation is 9k+4 years x4k =25k
B: COE then 50k. "" is 29k
C: COE then 60k. "" is 33k
D: COE then 70k. "" is 37k
Option 2: change now
your COE depreciation is 5x (40k/10)+9k(loss)= 29k
tipping pt is 50k COE. Then again, i doubt COE gonna fly in view of Covid situation. 60-70k COE is unlikely for next 12mths.
motorknut
Well-Known Member
I won't comment too much on the COE direction, cos that's really just a gamble. Personally, i think COE prices will be pretty stable for the next few months. Between ERP 2.0 and refilling the surplus, there isn't much benefit to allow COE to crash/spike.
That said, I had a 10 year old NA BMW with <60k mileage. I had planned to keep it in '18, but stuff started failing. I replaced window motors, the airconditioning started to fail. Even though PML assured me the rest of the car had nothing needing replacing, I had that car from day 1. I could tell which parts that were ageing and I figured i'd have to throw in 20k to refresh it back to how it truly drove. I was not prepared to take it to cheap garages to save money, and it was a pain waiting for PML to fly in original parts from Germany. I decided to sell it in the end.
Regardless the mileage, any ten year old car is gonna cost money to maintain/refresh. Wear isn't just based on mileage. Stuff like rubber does not keep well in our climate. The 528 is also pretty highly tuned, so keep that in mind.
Is renewing your car gonna cost more than a new BMW 5 series? Probably not. But I put a price on the time wasted when the old car breaks down, and in the shop getting fixed.
If i were you, i'd have a look at prices for ~1 year old current BMW models. Unless you really hate the new BMW designs. I just picked up a new car a couple of weeks back, and the new BMW tech features blew me away. So one more thing to consider - all the new tech you'd miss out on.
imprezawrxsti22b
Well-Known Member
Tech is nice, until they are outdated, worse if they spoil. Then you gotta keep changing to a newer car.
I would wait a year. And see how’s COE then. And if there are any major issues with the car, before deciding to renew anot
I would wait a year. And see how’s COE then. And if there are any major issues with the car, before deciding to renew anot
Tech is overrated IMO. it's more emotional than need. Other than autonomous driving which is not going to happen in SG for many yrs, there is no revolutionary must-have tech. Tech like hand gestures, while fun, is not a game changing.
Most of the more useful tech have after-market solutions at a fraction of the cost anyway. Be it multi-media related, navigation and wifi/bluetooth integration, cameras, TPMS, soft/auto closing doors&boot etc.
Most of the more useful tech have after-market solutions at a fraction of the cost anyway. Be it multi-media related, navigation and wifi/bluetooth integration, cameras, TPMS, soft/auto closing doors&boot etc.
Frankly I only use mostly the usual stuff like soft/auto closing and boot etc. So I am not so into high tech stuff.
My thinking of renewing Coe is because mine not very heavily used. However, I noticed many warning me about higher maintenance. If I renew COE, probably my depreciation would be around $7-8k. How much do I need to spend on maintenance/repair for a COE car per year? If I were to buy a new/fairly new BMW, depreciation would probably be $15-20k?
My thinking of renewing Coe is because mine not very heavily used. However, I noticed many warning me about higher maintenance. If I renew COE, probably my depreciation would be around $7-8k. How much do I need to spend on maintenance/repair for a COE car per year? If I were to buy a new/fairly new BMW, depreciation would probably be $15-20k?
