COE biddings gone mad
- Thread starter seanhuang129
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DrK
Well-Known Member
Re: COE biddings gone mad
Sorry! It probably doesn't work so well in the real world which is why we have the Great Financial Crisis due to some correlation models.
Having said that, all models need to be thoroughly back-tested which sadly is tedious to set-up and implement though we have tonnes of COE data.
Sorry! It probably doesn't work so well in the real world which is why we have the Great Financial Crisis due to some correlation models.
Having said that, all models need to be thoroughly back-tested which sadly is tedious to set-up and implement though we have tonnes of COE data.
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Re: COE biddings gone mad
Elliot Wave? :ehhh:
Mockngbrd;597190 said:
Elliot Wave? :ehhh:
delrosa81
Well-Known Member
Re: COE biddings gone mad
Actually I do not believe the possibility of people bidding so high for coe, if U are those new car dealers, would U bid so high??? Unless those supercar dealers and for me in the shoes of a new car dealer, I would try my very best to sell my new cars at the highest possible price and buy at the lowest possible price.
If you argue that a supercar dealer has a profit margin of 200k, whats the extra 20k to get a coe? But 20k is still quite abit of money.
But then again things are not so simple isnt it....hmmmm
Actually I do not believe the possibility of people bidding so high for coe, if U are those new car dealers, would U bid so high??? Unless those supercar dealers and for me in the shoes of a new car dealer, I would try my very best to sell my new cars at the highest possible price and buy at the lowest possible price.
If you argue that a supercar dealer has a profit margin of 200k, whats the extra 20k to get a coe? But 20k is still quite abit of money.
But then again things are not so simple isnt it....hmmmm
Re: COE biddings gone mad
im just wondering if t his will work....since COE supply controlled by the authorities each yr...why cant we set a flat COE price and individuals bid for it themselves? i.e ballot system. just lk oversubscribed condos or HDBs...no one pays premium right to be front of the queue...its lk if applying a HDB BTO concept just that u pay a flat fee wic is the COE...will work? my tots v simplistic...any implications? if this works..no spike or volatility in COE prices...transparent syst...that way govt control no. of cars on roads and consumers lk us worry abt soaring COEs?
im just wondering if t his will work....since COE supply controlled by the authorities each yr...why cant we set a flat COE price and individuals bid for it themselves? i.e ballot system. just lk oversubscribed condos or HDBs...no one pays premium right to be front of the queue...its lk if applying a HDB BTO concept just that u pay a flat fee wic is the COE...will work? my tots v simplistic...any implications? if this works..no spike or volatility in COE prices...transparent syst...that way govt control no. of cars on roads and consumers lk us worry abt soaring COEs?
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wt_know
Well-Known Member
Re: COE biddings gone mad
the flaw in your suggestion
1. hdb is considered 'national' housing. the main objective is let every singaporean to have a house. car is not.
2. house is need and car is want. you should pay competitive (fight among everyone) to what you want.:laughing:
3. let the market decide. even hdb is based on market pricing. land sale is based on market price that's why gov did not release a lot of land for sale when the price is not good.
4. coe is a huge income stream to gov coffer. why would gov want to cut this income stream ?
5. even with ballot system, people will speculate car in resale market like hdb and then gov will need to curb specualation like must drive 5 years then can sell ? car is more disposable than hdb and this is not good.
6. last but not least, this ballot idea will be a deterrent to FT and richie rich ... to drive porsche, maserati, lambo, ferrari. singapore will be un-competitive. then gov have to maintain 2 quota - 1 for ballot, 1 for bidding.just like hdb ballot cannot get then buy buy resale (speculation) or private?
don't get me wrong, i don't like skyrocketing coe price too.
the flaw in your suggestion
1. hdb is considered 'national' housing. the main objective is let every singaporean to have a house. car is not.
2. house is need and car is want. you should pay competitive (fight among everyone) to what you want.:laughing:
3. let the market decide. even hdb is based on market pricing. land sale is based on market price that's why gov did not release a lot of land for sale when the price is not good.
4. coe is a huge income stream to gov coffer. why would gov want to cut this income stream ?
5. even with ballot system, people will speculate car in resale market like hdb and then gov will need to curb specualation like must drive 5 years then can sell ? car is more disposable than hdb and this is not good.
6. last but not least, this ballot idea will be a deterrent to FT and richie rich ... to drive porsche, maserati, lambo, ferrari. singapore will be un-competitive. then gov have to maintain 2 quota - 1 for ballot, 1 for bidding.just like hdb ballot cannot get then buy buy resale (speculation) or private?
don't get me wrong, i don't like skyrocketing coe price too.
Niva;597629 said:
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Re: COE biddings gone mad
yup i agree mostly with you except that if there is a flaw in the COE system loike now and this is where the govt has to step in...like most guys here agree...60+k for COE doesnt really reflect the underlying demand. and if the market is susceptible to such volatility, govt shld step in. I am not a firm believer in free market...we all know what happen to US abt their advocacy on free market mechanism...
as for the govt land sales, maybe you got it wrong...land sales price is not entirely based on market forces all the time..during downturn, govt did release a few sites for sale but did not award the tender to the "low"bids...this in my opinion is not based on market mechanism...because it deemed the bids too low, it did not award the sites. while it has a point saying it has to answer the public for it, but end of day, if by free market application, the land shld be awarded...if developer dares to plunge in during bad times, it shld be richly rewarded for its venture if mkt makes a huge turnaround...now prices are high..then developers sell high, we as consumers complain..see where i am coming from?
while i agree tat will deter the richie rich...but why are we always seeing the point from the rich? yes they will eventually filter dwn to the broader economy when they prosper...but arent we too one directional in our policies?
but yeap agree that the ballot syst will lead to more implications...hopefully someone cud solve this..obviously this current syst aint working...
wt_know;597632 said:
yup i agree mostly with you except that if there is a flaw in the COE system loike now and this is where the govt has to step in...like most guys here agree...60+k for COE doesnt really reflect the underlying demand. and if the market is susceptible to such volatility, govt shld step in. I am not a firm believer in free market...we all know what happen to US abt their advocacy on free market mechanism...
as for the govt land sales, maybe you got it wrong...land sales price is not entirely based on market forces all the time..during downturn, govt did release a few sites for sale but did not award the tender to the "low"bids...this in my opinion is not based on market mechanism...because it deemed the bids too low, it did not award the sites. while it has a point saying it has to answer the public for it, but end of day, if by free market application, the land shld be awarded...if developer dares to plunge in during bad times, it shld be richly rewarded for its venture if mkt makes a huge turnaround...now prices are high..then developers sell high, we as consumers complain..see where i am coming from?
while i agree tat will deter the richie rich...but why are we always seeing the point from the rich? yes they will eventually filter dwn to the broader economy when they prosper...but arent we too one directional in our policies?
but yeap agree that the ballot syst will lead to more implications...hopefully someone cud solve this..obviously this current syst aint working...
DevilAngel
Well-Known Member
Re: COE biddings gone mad
this is precisely the case for COE too, when the targeted price wasn't met, reduce COE to pump up bidding price (supply & demand), reducing COE is an excuse to curb car population. the number of lower COE release must be equal or higher to the previous collection to the coffer,
exp 5000 COE x $20000 = $100 mil as compared to
3000 COE x $50000 (avg) = $150 mil
coffer collection met for Yr 2010, LTA CEO targetted annual turnover exceed Yr2009 = big bonuses.... same goes to all other gov depts.
Annual report;
1. curb car population = successful
2. collection - exceeded target = successful
3. road works - budget cut = successful (due to shoddy work, but this line not in the report)
4. ERP - expw speed smooth, higher collection = successful
5. still not enough - catch modders - action taken - answer to public complains - fines = successful
6. big fat BONUSES = successful (from all the drivers and car owners of Sg)
Do you think they will "step in" to damage their annual collection plan? THINK!!
Niva;597789 said:
this is precisely the case for COE too, when the targeted price wasn't met, reduce COE to pump up bidding price (supply & demand), reducing COE is an excuse to curb car population. the number of lower COE release must be equal or higher to the previous collection to the coffer,
exp 5000 COE x $20000 = $100 mil as compared to
3000 COE x $50000 (avg) = $150 mil
coffer collection met for Yr 2010, LTA CEO targetted annual turnover exceed Yr2009 = big bonuses.... same goes to all other gov depts.
Annual report;
1. curb car population = successful
2. collection - exceeded target = successful
3. road works - budget cut = successful (due to shoddy work, but this line not in the report)
4. ERP - expw speed smooth, higher collection = successful
5. still not enough - catch modders - action taken - answer to public complains - fines = successful
6. big fat BONUSES = successful (from all the drivers and car owners of Sg)
Do you think they will "step in" to damage their annual collection plan? THINK!!
Jason.Neo
Well-Known Member
Re: COE biddings gone mad
Dealers are like that one... My car - same yr and mth and all, not up by more than 5k since i bought 1.5 mths ago....
Anyway, govt has a very smart way to increase price on COE without hurting their overall revenue wat... they did it the economically correct way... Just like Iran did when they formed the OPEC!!! Remember in the 1970's when oil prices shot up 5 times from the US$5 per barrel... the near 3 times from US$40 per barrel in recent times??? Ppl complain... but still buy... cos its a necessity... Same goes for COE... Govt has made it a necessity through statutory regulations... then suddenly cut supply Think Economics 101 and you will know how the supply curve will move in relation to the demand...
WIth so many economists as ministers, it is easy to work these things out... when someone who has not read much of econs in school like me can figure it out...
iScoupe;597936 said:
Dealers are like that one... My car - same yr and mth and all, not up by more than 5k since i bought 1.5 mths ago....
Anyway, govt has a very smart way to increase price on COE without hurting their overall revenue wat... they did it the economically correct way... Just like Iran did when they formed the OPEC!!! Remember in the 1970's when oil prices shot up 5 times from the US$5 per barrel... the near 3 times from US$40 per barrel in recent times??? Ppl complain... but still buy... cos its a necessity... Same goes for COE... Govt has made it a necessity through statutory regulations... then suddenly cut supply Think Economics 101 and you will know how the supply curve will move in relation to the demand...
WIth so many economists as ministers, it is easy to work these things out... when someone who has not read much of econs in school like me can figure it out...
Re: COE biddings gone mad
ask yr colleage to ask a bit more for his car trade in if any, else LPPL. But again it's always
one way traffic for these scumbags . Thank goodness my car still have 5 yrs to go, should have
chance for COE to come down .... i hope
iScoupe;597936 said:
ask yr colleage to ask a bit more for his car trade in if any, else LPPL. But again it's always
one way traffic for these scumbags . Thank goodness my car still have 5 yrs to go, should have
chance for COE to come down .... i hope
