Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

[seanskye]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

Bingo! But we can only analyse, what happens in reality sometimes differ. Wish I could hear Ben B's private conversations...

 

[naan1974]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

Garment so many patterns izzit because they know next year interest will go up to 5% and they beri beri scare pple all
pok kai . Some file for 11 , some run road, some jump... then become garment problem.

 

[Darth Vader]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

I think whether or not the local property collapse or not will depend on the health of the PRC economy.
90,000 problem units can be snapped up by Chinese buyers.
Singapore is like paradise to these folks.
no other country on this planet have a 73% mandarin speaking population.
(hongkong, macau and Taiwan all belongs to china)

 

[golfgti]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

I think whether or not the local property collapse or not will depend on the health of the PRC economy.
90,000 problem units can be snapped up by Chinese buyers.
Singapore is like paradise to these folks.
no other country on this planet have a 73% mandarin speaking population.
(hongkong, macau and Taiwan all belongs to china)

err PRC not stupid ok. ever since garmen cum out w high buyer duty, theyve moved their funds to US & canadian properties.

Also, do u thk d sandwich class etc who complain abt high prop prices will keep quiet if garmen open floodgates n PRC swarm here n buy all up at 20-30% higher price all cash?

 

[brosiss]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

here r 2 telling charts.

SIBOR: SIBOR (3-mth) Rate Historical Trend Chart - Singapore

Rental yield: https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/market-watch/rental-yield

Back in Jan 2007, SIBOR was 3.4% n rental yields were 4.4% overall. Now SIBOR is 0.31% & rental yield is 3.5%....

As & when SIBOR goes back to 3.4%, the only way yields can remain at 3.5% & prop price doesnt correct is that rents go up alot more. Taking into consideration the FT labour squeeze & record physical prop supply next few yrs, its hard to b bullish on rents and prices both continuing up...

If rents go down & SIBOR goes back 3+%, thats a bearish combo as prices likely have to correct...

Traditionally US will adjust interest rate by very small percent point so take long time to reach 3.5%.

Moreover, US economy just recovered, so they have to be prudent

But US gov also in need of money, so never know.

 

[brosiss]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

I think whether or not the local property collapse or not will depend on the health of the PRC economy.
90,000 problem units can be snapped up by Chinese buyers.
Singapore is like paradise to these folks.
no other country on this planet have a 73% mandarin speaking population.
(hongkong, macau and Taiwan all belongs to china)

So true. It is proven, Chinese economy saved the world.

 

[DrK]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

Depends on who takes over Bernanke. People close says that Summers will be the next fed chair. He is a hawkish guy. Rates will not climb up like a snail. I think the era of real negative rates will end by H1 of next year.

Closer to home, there is more freedom to dis-peg lcoal rates from US. Our economy is more entrenched now than say 1997 and the rates/bonds markets are way deeper and liquid than before. MAS is in a better position not to be too hawkish which may break the momentum of the economic growth. In other words, it has more weapons than the Feds. So I don't think the SIBORs will climb that fast. At least not at the backend of the curves.

All these talk is technical without looking at the supply side. Hearsay that developers are not as bullish anymore. They are cutting back on development plans to consolidate cost and growth. First tell-tale signs are the forward PEs of these major developer stocks. HK developer stock prices have fallen abit. Shows that housing prices are stablising. Sg is usually like 6 months to 1 year behind HK housing markets. Also look at REITs performance. That is usually a good indicator of how rents will progress moving forward.

Bottomline is there will not be a kneejerk hike in rates. Not many people will be affected by foreclosures or banks calling on housing debts. But demand will wane because purchasers become wary. Suppliers will tone down. So back to equilibrium state of stabilisation is my best guess.

 

[Mockngbrd]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

nobodoy post sexy girl photo yet. good.

 

[golfgti]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

Depends on who takes over Bernanke. People close says that Summers will be the next fed chair. He is a hawkish guy. Rates will not climb up like a snail. I think the era of real negative rates will end by H1 of next year.

....

All these talk is technical without looking at the supply side. Hearsay that developers are not as bullish anymore. They are cutting back on development plans to consolidate cost and growth. First tell-tale signs are the forward PEs of these major developer stocks. HK developer stock prices have fallen abit. Shows that housing prices are stablising. Sg is usually like 6 months to 1 year behind HK housing markets. Also look at REITs performance. That is usually a good indicator of how rents will progress moving forward.

Might b janet yellen. Also, developers r usually valued on P/B not P/E coz of their fixed asset concentration. P/E is more for investment props like REITs but they are valued mostly in P/B unless they are purely renting n dont own any asset. Thats how ah cheong likely decided 2 take SCGD private aside frm tax savings.

 

[seanskye]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

Might b janet yellen. Also, developers r usually valued on P/B not P/E coz of their fixed asset concentration. P/E is more for investment props like REITs but they are valued mostly in P/B unless they are purely renting n dont own any asset. Thats how ah cheong likely decided 2 take SCGD private aside frm tax savings.

I'm with you on Janet. And hello QExxx... Or at least a long taper.

 

[golfgti]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

I'm with you on Janet. And hello QExxx... Or at least a long taper.

her 2005 speech warning abt bubbly US housing mkt n its effect on overall economy.

Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco | Janet Yellen, President, CEO, Federal Reserve, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, Speech, US Economy, Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy

"there are downside risks to economic growth relating to the housing market. This sector has been a key source of strength in the current expansion, and the concern is that, if house prices fell, the negative impact on household wealth could lead to a pullback in consumer spending. "

 

[seanskye]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

nobodoy post sexy girl photo yet. good.

As you wish...

View attachment 52676

 

[John136888]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

So true. It is proven, Chinese economy saved the world.

Bro, I have a different view. They ruined the world economy by cheap labour, fake or copied products, excessive garment support oversea projects...we have been happily enjoying all the goodies of jobs & prosperity in the old days without them.

 

[Darth Vader]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

this is china's century, our lives are tied to them for the better or for the worst.
our prosperity as a nation will depend on the grace of china.
credit must be given to LKY for recognising it early when china was just opening its doors.

 

[brosiss]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

Bro, I have a different view. They ruined the world economy by cheap labour, fake or copied products, excessive garment support oversea projects...we have been happily enjoying all the goodies of jobs & prosperity in the old days without them.

True, China cheated the world. So does capitalism.

 

[brosiss]

Re: Singapore central bank says rising household debt 'worrying'

this is china's century, our lives are tied to them for the better or for the worst.
our prosperity as a nation will depend on the grace of china.
credit must be given to LKY for recognising it early when china was just opening its doors.

Cost us Suzhou park but worth it.