Let's talk stocks & IPO

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

V3Go alone - trend channel is helpful, but gotta modifying on that on various timeframes to get a full picture. Also, I combined it with levels and range analysis to get a better feel of a trade.

Example - many times, a saucer shape chart gimme a multifold return over a longer timeframe where channels/trend/direction guessing could not detect. Blumont is one such stock.

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

yea, ive set system stoploss, usually at prior day low, or middle of prior day range...and sometimes the stock do a flushdown and triggered stoploss. do u usually set mental SL or system?

blumont had flushdown twice. seems like a cornered stock with the operator slowly bringing up the price, on a gentle uptrend. trades at low volume daily... some retailers just ride along...

For trading views, I think most of us can get 60-70% of the trade correct. But that's not the trick. The trick is to get these 60-70% of the trades very profitable, and at the same time make sure that those 30-40% of the scratched/losing trades, the losses are minimal. That is not easy for many.

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

yea, ive set system stoploss, usually at prior day low, or middle of prior day range...and sometimes the stock do a flushdown and triggered stoploss. do u usually set mental SL or system?

I set my stoploss on two fronts:

(a) trailing stops for in-the-money/averaging up scenarios. Here, I have a deep in-the-money position, and I have been riding on it. Say monthly, weekly and daily trends have been bullish. Here and there, market corrects a bit, affecting the day-to-day trends. As long as my monthly and weekly trends are still bullish, I will continue to ride the run, but if and when the daily AND the weekly chart turns, I will turn cautious. The stoploss level becomes my profit-taking decision on longer-term holdings. It is usually very near to short-term actions. This helps me to (1) protect my profits (2) avoid getting caught in a steep/acute selldown and (3) prevent the VAR of my portfolio from wild swings.

I have made some assumptions to facilitate this -

(1) bull vs bear cycles, patterns and sentimental profiles are never symmetrical - fear ALWAYS win in the short-term, and win intensively;

(2) typical bull cycle on STI is 4-8 weeks

(3) typical bear cycle on STI is 4 weeks

(4) short term parameters are the trigger for longer term trend changes, but over reliance on ST readings renders lots of trade errors / shake-outs - hence the weekly chart component


(b) cutloss levels on short-term trades. These are premised on the wrong calls on trends/direction but triggered on levels. However, certain observations/disciplines need to be exercised. First example, STI at 3400 on May 23rd and then 29th. Can ignore the first breach but SECOND attempt to breakdown 3400 - better respect that. Second example, below 3200-3250 range, any short position, gotta half the volume or even refrain. Reasoning - chances of a false break + squeeze is high, after almost 7-9 days of initial selldown. Trend/channel concurs, but day-count plays a part too. This part is more of an art.

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

blumont had flushdown twice. seems like a cornered stock with the operator slowly bringing up the price, on a gentle uptrend. trades at low volume daily... some retailers just ride along...

Example of a "cornered" stock.... Sky One.....

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

wah, had a look at the chart. damn cornered. left pocket to right pocket?

rinse and repeat

Example of a "cornered" stock.... Sky One.....

 

[ipoh-horfun]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

for stocks...

personally i find stochastics, macd, rsi quite lagging indicators,

prefer price action, volume, trendlines, prior highs and lows, candlesticks(not very accurate too)

and im not sure if v3go,sgx swinger, gonna teach me what i already know, or some secret formula...

For stocks: heard of midas tools?

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

heard pple talk about it, looked at it, chart is chui.

think can short it down...

Dukang TOH today

For stocks: heard of midas tools?

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Sharing case study - Biosensor, today. How?

(1) Trend - down for month, weekly and monthly charts all bearish
(2) Direction - up on daily chart today. Outside downtrend channel. Right side of V, BUT counter-trend trade
(3) Levels - 1.01, 1.025, 1.05, 1.065/1.07, 1.085
(4) Range - 1.065/1.07 to 1.085
(5) Momentum - tapering/toppish on hourly chart at 1.06, distribution pattern observed at 1.06
(6) Odds - possibility of a MACD Diff doing a cross-over, overall volume normal vis-a-vis 6-mth or 1-mth averages

Conclusion - max another day to play.... at odds against trend/levels/range..... While some traders are eyeing this, I am watching the patterns on May 21st, 2012, Nov 2, 2012, Mar 15th, but fearful of the bearish continuation after those V-shaped trades.

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Do u think futures is a good indicator?

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Do u think futures is a good indicator?

In Asian hours?

Liquidity in Asian market on US futures asides, under normal bull market, frequent to see premium of parity between futures (Asian hours) vs last close. At times, could infer what the hedge funds wanna do.

Under volatile/down markets, Asian hour futures tend to trade at huge discount. That also means post-US hours, the US futures tend to show (big) green numbers during Asian hours, if you notice......

Use last night's closings on S&P and Dow to gauge. Even if futures trade at parity, means nothing.

If the futures show a big premium to spot in such a climate, it will be a different story....

Somemore this month-end, fiscal 2Q and 1H ends, window-dressing and what-not, will see some volatility if not from contango and backwardation.

Buay zhoon liao.....

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

hi kenntonna, talking about cornered stock, check out Asiasons

What do u think is the operator's agenda? Is it good to ride on such cornered stocks?

 

[ipoh-horfun]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

today can buy ppty counters?

 

[ktnpl]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

APTT at current price offers 10% yield which is a good buy with good prospects from new untapped market and expansion of broadband business.

 

[ktnpl]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

There is a Central China Real Estate bond giving 10+%, just launched this week. More risky of course but its in sgd. Fyi...

Just curious, what's the price of Central China Real Estate bond at the moment? I did not buy as it is OTC and also due to the high commission payable to the bank. I think APTT would be a safer bet as it is more transparent by being listed.

 

[hoks]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

I think its around 108.

 

[ktnpl]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

I think its around 108.

I think I was offered 103 at launch compared to 100 for yours. Might be a good time to take profit and move to listed ones offering the same return

 

[hoks]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Haha thanks for the advice...I dun normally sell bonds, just keep to collect interest ba.

 

[rodders]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

[h=1]Reuters Insider - Prepare for market panic: Jim Rogers - RTRS[/h]28-Aug-2013 12:23 DateLine: HONG KONG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Potential conflict
in Syria and the scaling back of Fed stimulus
point to a full-scale market "mess," says investor
Jim Rogers, with the countries running trade
deficits likely to be hardest hit.

Time/Date: 04:00 GMT - Wed, 28 Aug 2013

Title: Prepare for market panic: Jim Rogers

Source: Thomson Reuters

Description: Potential conflict in Syria and the scaling back
of Fed stimulus point to a full-scale market
"mess," says investor Jim Rogers, with the
countries running trade deficits likely to be
hardest hit.

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Exit, Schmexit | Outside the Box Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

Stephen Roach: "World could be in early stages of the next crisis. imbalances are not sustainable, regardless of how hard central banks try to duck the consequences.

Developing economies are now feeling the full force of the Fed's moment of reckoning.They are guilty of failing to face up to their own rebalancing during the heady days of the QE sugar high. And the Fed is just as guilty, if not more so, for orchestrating this failed policy experiment in the first place."

 

[totoseow]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Exit, Schmexit | Outside the Box Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

Stephen Roach: "World could be in early stages of the next crisis. imbalances are not sustainable, regardless of how hard central banks try to duck the consequences.

Developing economies are now feeling the full force of the Fed's moment of reckoning.They are guilty of failing to face up to their own rebalancing during the heady days of the QE sugar high. And the Fed is just as guilty, if not more so, for orchestrating this failed policy experiment in the first place."

since first day I know u...u hv always been a bear trader. roach shud b ur best friend.

I actually think the fed knew what they were doing from the start. they know QE is a big risk...n I hv read from my chief economist that right now the world is far from imploding.

BUT roach is perhaps not wrong...and that's why the fed is out pricking the bubble. let out air bit by bit. they r well aware of the fate of the world on their shoulders.

after the 08 crisis and the 2011 illiquid crunch....im sure the FED cannot fail. im bearish....but I don't c a crisis....I c the mkt tapering downwards...but this cud be a long down trend.

time to focus on quality assets with short maturities.