Let's talk stocks & IPO

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

since first day I know u...u hv always been a bear trader. roach shud b ur best friend.

I have executed trades on both sides, but with leverage, I find the short-side easier to make money. Bear cycles are more intense and shorter in duration, example 2-4 weeks on the STI, but bigger %, as compared to a typical 4-8 weeks bull cycle.

Even if you apply the FA approach, the bear cycles typically move faster than the analysis are fully made. Gotta sniff for the smaller cuts even before the blood are fully spilled.

Hence the assymetrical approach.

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Agree...shorting has a higher percentage gain, prices drop steeply like a person falling off a cliff.

prices go up slowly , like a person walking up the stairs.

when i wanted to short Ezion ard 240, all the scrips all sold out! nothing available left for me.
same goes when i wanted to short Suntec reit at 1.9+

sti, lower high, lower low. double tops.

have u cash out on all your long positions?

I have executed trades on both sides, but with leverage, I find the short-side easier to make money. Bear cycles are more intense and shorter in duration, example 2-4 weeks on the STI, but bigger %, as compared to a typical 4-8 weeks bull cycle.

Even if you apply the FA approach, the bear cycles typically move faster than the analysis are fully made. Gotta sniff for the smaller cuts even before the blood are fully spilled.

Hence the assymetrical approach.

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

have u cash out on all your long positions?

Nothing left since early August.

 

[totoseow]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

I am always long......never ever sell...cant trade stks for nuts. long n wrong

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

short is a sharper skill cos it hones on fear.

long is based on hope and greed.

 

[seanskye]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

I am always long......never ever sell...cant trade stks for nuts. long n wrong

ermmm.... and that is why you drive a Lamb? I wonder what u will drive if you are right....

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Hi Kenntona, do u think OKH Global is a cornered stock?

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

i think if he is right, he will drive a Zonda le

ermmm.... and that is why you drive a Lamb? I wonder what u will drive if you are right....

 

[totoseow]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

im not a trader la..i am a dollar averaging long term buyer

 

[jasonmaxima]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

I am always long......never ever sell...cant trade stks for nuts. long n wrong

your long stick and nuts pushed how many yam5s on the road?

irrelevant

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

short is a sharper skill cos it hones on fear.

There is a individual pyschological part to it, and there is a group herd mentality part to it.

What intensify the bear cycle in terms of magnitude and timeframe is this - "change of fundamentals COULD BE taking place, but I will only know if this is true AFTER the market sell-off. Volatility spikes, VAR management kicks in, cut loss trigger all in place....."

Add to that the uncertain catalyst to EACH and EVERY bear cycle...... *

Most might not qualify or quantify these, but collectively, we all behave the same.

* bull catalysts - macro growth, earnings growth, blah blah blah, same dimension
* bear catalysts - anything from structural damages to economic, socio, political systems to war and terrorism......

Hi Kenntona, do u think OKH Global is a cornered stock?

Blumont revisited

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Minzhong roped in Indofood to kill shortists like Glaucus........ PT Indofood has taken another 25.6m stake at $1.12. Current stake > 30%, so a mandatory cash offer (amounting to $519m as per Maybank KES' numbers) will be tabled at $1.12.

A game between the big boys.........

 

[hetraa]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Shortist die jialat jialat.

looking at the chart, i couldnt find any heavy vol of shorts prior to that fateful day. if say, Glaucus shorted on that day itself , its only 23mil worth of shares (not including other retailers) If Glaucus shorted on that day, they could have $13 million profits (shd be lesser as they didnt short 23 mil at the top of the selling queue)

now that it open at 1.130, maybe they juz covered their shorts, and lost 81k.

what do u think?

Another possiblity, what if CMZ directors wanna cash out already, told Glaucous to make a fake report, prompting SSH Indofood to buyout the company...etc etc

Minzhong roped in Indofood to kill shortists like Glaucus........ PT Indofood has taken another 25.6m stake at $1.12. Current stake > 30%, so a mandatory cash offer (amounting to $519m as per Maybank KES' numbers) will be tabled at $1.12.

A game between the big boys.........

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

(1) Companies like Glaucus & Muddy Waters would have shorted some time before the reports are out.
(2) However, the "shorting period" will be close enough to strip off excessive beta risks.
(3) Let's presume they started shorting in mid-August - roughly 2 weeks prior to release of the report. Costs were < 1.10.
(4) They would have made a windfall had they covered short on August 26th. My bet is that they did not.
(5) Would they have added shorts? Perhaps, small. Retails and CFD clients took over. Cut loss for longs triggered too.
(6) Minzhong smart - first step is to stop bleeding via trading halt - stopped shorting immediately.
(7) Minzhong and Indofood M&A talks behind the scenes.
(8. Resumes trading and use mandatory takeover price to squash volatility. The best stabiliser. Shortists all die.
(9) Takeover price at 1.12 versus possible shorts prices below 1.10 - very obvious who won the battle.

Minzhong would not have engaged Glaucus to short to kill themselves. Legality asides, value destruction will not bode well for Minzhong and its shareholder Indofood and in turn, First Pacific (Indo's parent). If Indo pulls out, the bluff will be disastrous.

 

[Skyexplorer2]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

im not a trader la..i am a dollar averaging long term buyer

I don't drive a bull but like you I am always long buying 2k of mutual funds every month till I reach 50, do you advocate going into stocks directly or selecting a few good funds and dollar cost average for the long term say 10 years?

 

[totoseow]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

I don't drive a bull but like you I am always long buying 2k of mutual funds every month till I reach 50, do you advocate going into stocks directly or selecting a few good funds and dollar cost average for the long term say 10 years?

i cant advise u. for me its always a dividend or yield play. i buy stocks with good pay out and a lot more bonds frankly. most of my stocks are also of companies with strong stable management.

if u r young its always good to diversify in asset classes too.

 

[golfgti]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Minzhong roped in Indofood to kill shortists like Glaucus........ PT Indofood has taken another 25.6m stake at $1.12. Current stake > 30%, so a mandatory cash offer (amounting to $519m as per Maybank KES' numbers) will be tabled at $1.12.

A game between the big boys.........

reality is indofood prob did not want to spend that $$ to buy minzhong now, but had to do so to protect their existing minzhong stake mah.

Exactly same scenario as Olampa n Temasick mah right.

Moral of story: wanna play ponzi, make sure got a rich man to sucker in as your cornerstone investor, so he has no choice but to top up when sh!t hits d fan

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

reality is indofood prob did not want to spend that $$ to buy minzhong now, but had to do so to protect their existing minzhong stake mah.

Exactly same scenario as Olampa n Temasick mah right.

Moral of story: wanna play ponzi, make sure got a rich man to sucker in as your cornerstone investor, so he has no choice but to top up when sh!t hits d fan

Of course, a step which I suspect Glaucus miscalculated. A full takeover is not a show-hand from Indo's cash perspectives. It is only one-third of their cash.

Different in the case of Temasek-Olam. Temasek's stake in Olam is much smaller than Indofood's in Minzhong - a further distance to trigger a mandatory G.O.

 

[ipoh-horfun]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Of course, a step which I suspect Glaucus miscalculated. A full takeover is not a show-hand from Indo's cash perspectives. It is only one-third of their cash.

Different in the case of Temasek-Olam. Temasek's stake in Olam is much smaller than Indofood's in Minzhong - a further distance to trigger a mandatory G.O.

Wonder what price they shorted?

 

[kenntona]

Re: Let's talk stocks & IPO

Wonder what price they shorted?

Look at Minz's chart. What price could they have shorted at?

High for last 3 months is 1.15......